Since October of 2019, Lebanon has been rife with political protest in response to the proposed tax on the use of social media platform WhatsApp. This was the tipping point for an outburst, which was due for long. Nearly two weeks after the people took the streets to bring down their corrupt, elite government, the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, announced his resignation on 29th October and finally stepped down.
Though the resignation was the primary demand of the protesters, the protests and demonstrations have continued since, as people look towards overthrowing, not only their current government but the entire structure of political elites along with its inherent injustice and systemic corruption.
The Government Structure
Lebanon is a unitary multiparty republic, along with a parliamentary system of government. As the country has 18 officially recognized religious communities, its main political offices are divided between three of the biggest sects in the country. Its confessional system was introduced after the 1975-1990 civil war, according to which the President must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Parliament Speaker a Shia Muslim. In terms of the population, there are approximately 54% Muslims, 40.5% Christians, and 5% Druze.
With a religious composition as complex as this, Lebanon becomes a geopolitical playing ground for the players abroad. For instance, Saudi Arabia, which maintains its influence over the Sunni political parties while Iran supports the Shia parties, Hezbollah, and so on.
France also maintains some amount of hold over the Maronite Christians, which has led the people of Lebanon to worry that their political leaders may care more about their allies and patron abroad than looking after more immediate civic and administrative needs at home.
The New Government
On 21st January 2020, it was agreed, by those in power, to form a new government. The resignation of Mr. Hariri in October took place against the wishes of Hezbollah, leading to a collapse of the government and triggering a political crisis amidst the economic one. The same day as the resignation, black-clad Hezbollah and Amal supporters attacked the demonstrators, tearing down and burning up a protest encampment in Beirut.
In December, a new Prime Minister was designated whose candidacy was proposed by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement. According to the New York Times, this is a move that risks fueling the current political unrest as well as alienating the country’s Western allies at a time when Lebanon needs the aforementioned international support the most due to its rapidly collapsing economy.
The new Prime Minister, Mr. Hassan Diab, wanted a government of 18 ministers at first but agreed to include two more at the last minute to satisfy different political parties, which have given the go-ahead for the ministers’ nomination. Though many of these government representatives have some amount of expertise in their respective fields, the newly formed government does not adhere to the protesters’ demand for the independent government, as promised by Mr. Diab.
It took nine months since Mr. Hariri’s resignation to establish this coalition government and as per the Times, though a coalition of Western-leaning groups, including Mr. Hariri’s Future Movement, decided not to participate, the new government is hardly a break from the old. Given the current system, it is likely that new government or not, the establishment parties would secure around the same number of seats. Some of its political elite are also linked to the parties which are allied with Hezbollah – powerful Shia party-cum-militia. In lieu of this, protests have continued as the people struggle to bring down these draconian power structures.
Hezbollah and its Political Growth
The Hezbollah – a political party as well as a militant group, first emerged during the civil war as a militia after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. After Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah resisted the pressure to disarm, and continued to strengthen and fortify its military wing, the Islamic Resistance.
A few months after the war in 2006, Hezbollah used its prestige to bring down, or at least try to bring down Lebanon’s government when its demands for more cabinet seats were declined. Members of Hezbollah, as well as those of the Amal militia, then resigned from the cabinet, and the opposition declared that the remaining cabinet had lost its legitimacy.
It demanded the establishment of a brand new government in which Hezbollah and its opposition allies would possess the power of veto. The Hezbollah went on to become involved in several conspiracies over the years, such as the killing of Rafiq-al-Hariri and armed conflicts, like the war in Syria.
In May 2018, during Lebanon’s first parliamentary elections in nine years, Hezbollah—increased its share of seats to 53%, becoming politically dominant for the first time .
The Implications of a Hezbollah Backed Government
Hezbollah is a Shiite political party and militant organization backed by Iran and was designated by the United States as a terrorist group. Furthermore, the appointment of a Hezbollah-backed Prime Minister is not only against Lebanon’s long-standing tradition of consensual politics but also reinforces the idea that Hezbollah is in fact the most powerful player in Lebanon.
This also stands to deter future aid from the west, and along with the U.S., Britain’s treasury also deemed Hezbollah a terrorist organization. In addition, security risks such as the weak governance, a volatile economy, destabilizing spillover from the Syrian civil war, and the increasing tension between Israel and Hezbollah, have alarmed the U.S. policymakers along with leaders of partner states in Europe and the Persian Gulf.
Being nominated by Hezbollah, Diab is now seen as a candidate of Hezbollah. This is problematic as it essentially puts the government into the pockets of Hezbollah. Although the people have demanded another election, Lebanese leaders have, in the past, been rather skillful at manipulating the elections to suit their needs.
With Hezbollah allies in power, they will likely exert a massive influence on Government policies, further perpetuating the corrupt nature of the government. President Michel Aoun and Nabih Berri, longtime speaker of Parliament, are both Hezbollah allies and men unlikely to be willing to let go of their power.
The people have realized this and took to the streets soon after the announcement of the new government with chants such as, “Diab get out” and “ All of them means all of them.” Their need is to overthrow all of the political elite who seized power after the civil war with a new non-sectarian government.
The government has been termed a ‘one color’ government as it represents the traditional power-sharing system that has been protested all this time. Several ministers are also closely linked with the banks, which is not something that the people will be happy about given the political corruption and economic crisis.
Unfortunately, the recent actions by those in power, which is now the Hezbollah, is that they do not care about what the people want. To add to it, Hezbollah itself had publicly denied a distinction between its military and political wings, which became evident when protesters were brutally attacked with tear gas and water cannons by the military.
With Hezbollah as the unofficial head of State, Lebanon is left with an extremely precarious situation that will be a challenge to come back from.
Pierre El Sokhn
