The history of Hezbollah clearly demonstrates why Lebanon’s general stability abroad is of considerable interest: Iran exploits Lebanon’s civil war, the post-2003 internal conflict in Iraq and more civil wars recent in Syria and Yemen to lift deep roots that are difficult to eradicate. Civil wars become vehicles for the expansion of Iran’s influence.
Lebanon abroad is observed with the possibility that protests may not produce immediate changes, but it is considered that a constructive process has really begun. According to rumors, some traditional secretarial leaders are considering the reflection on allowing a genuinely technocratic cabinet to emerge, in the belief that technocrats will have the financial collapse that was already planned, thus paving the way for traditional leaders to open the way. Through rubble in a race back to power.
But the sustained and widespread criticism of the political class, sectarianism and Hezbullah of Lebanon has broken considerable taboos. While the decisions are yours, the Lebanese, who have lived with the contradiction of self-identification with the West while hosting an Iranian terrorist subsidiary, have to understand the implications of the path they have chosen. In previous financial crises in Lebanon abroad, the Arabian Gulf states transferred foreign currency deposits to the Central Bank of Lebanon temporarily to shore up reserves. This could be repeated.
With the right people and policies, a new Lebanese government could finally implement the reforms that could trigger the release of reformulated assistance packages in millions of dollars promised in previous years. These measures would offer Lebanese officials a brief respite, while they are in charge of enacting reforms, long promised, never delivered and that are now demanded by the population, to put Lebanon’s finances on a sustainable basis and promote economic growth.
The last drag, the burden falls on Lebanese officials to overcome national and international skepticism, by selecting faces and certain credible policies for the incoming cabinet. Hezbullah’s continued cronyism, corruption and pampering will always lead to downward, while reform, accountability, transparency and dependence on national institutions instead of Hezbullah can attract the kind of support to lead towards Best destination with other countries offering support and partnership. With the right government in place and with renewed international support, this does not have to be impossible to achieve. With a little over 10,000 square kilometers, Lebanon abroad is as a much smaller area than the metropolitan area of New York City. The population of Greater New York exceeds 20 million, while Lebanon, including Syrian and Palestinian refugees, has a population of less than 7 million. This is why it is believed that it cannot be so difficult to provide reliable electricity, internet and garbage collection to a Lebanese citizenship that is generally well educated and connected internationally. In the same way, it should not be so expensive under the right leadership to attract support to put the financial situation and a better course.
On the other hand, Hezbulla finds itself increasingly difficult to defend its own armed arm. To this, an intense activity of the Lebanese government is added to manage to escalate the conflict with Israel. In this way we see how what leads the main actors towards war is not the confrontation with which their adversary will be during the armed conflict, but each of the internal conflict dynamics in the states. Despite the constant attempt to create the necessary conditions that lead to a disarmament of Hezbullah, including the possibility of signing a peace agreement, the Lebanese actors are far from having these capabilities vis-à-vis the other actors. For this reason, the greater power and greater capacity of influence in the evolution of the conflict implies that it is the Israeli actors who have more responsibility in the enduring of this.
Pierre El Sokhn
